NFL Divisional Round betting guide
Matt Krohn-USA TODAY Sports

NFL Divisional Round betting guide

Gone are the days of 16 games to highlight here in our weekly betting guide, but as the saying goes: quality over quantity. This weekend's Divisional Round brings with it four great games, and we have a bet for each one.

Jacksonville Jaguars @ Kansas City Chiefs

Spread: Kansas City -8.5

Total: 53 points

We like the Jaguars to keep this one competitive and the Chiefs to win, so we naturally think there's nice value in Jacksonville +8.5. Instead, we turn to loading up a player who will be integral to backing up our belief there in Christian Kirk. Kirk is averaging 8.6 targets per game over the last ten games and has scored nine times this season. Kansas City has allowed the second-most touchdowns to wide receivers this season, and in an earlier matchup this season, Kirk hauled in nine balls for 105 yards and two scores. 

Betting: Christian Kirk TD (+185 FD)

New York Giants @ Philadelphia Eagles

Spread: Philadelphia -7.5

Total: 48 points

This is another we could see being a bit more competitive than the spread suggests, as three meetings in one year is quite a lot, and divisional games always hit different. If the Giants are indeed going to keep it close, it's a fair assumption that Daniel Jones will need to play well. Brian Daboll is running Jones into the ground at the moment, as the offense has clearly identified Jones to be a threat with his legs. It's working too, as Jones has turned 28 carries over the past two weeks into 169 yards. Philly has allowed four of the last six quarterbacks they've faced to go over their rushing yards total and have allowed the fourth-most rushing yards to QBs on the season. 

Betting: Daniel Jones over 44.5 rushing yards (-120 BetMGM)

Cincinnati Bengals @ Buffalo Bills

Spread: Buffalo -5.5

Total: 48.5 points

This figures to the most anticipated game of the weekend, just as it was on Monday night Week 17 before the game was unable to continue. We have two of the best young quarterbacks in the NFL and two teams with postseason experience. Our focus is on Buffalo — we like the Bills to win this game at home. Cincinnati is so banged up along their offensive line, and it becomes extremely difficult to win in this league when that's the case. We could see this being a high-scoring game, but ultimately we're banking on Buffalo disrupting Joe Burrow and making their own plays on offense to advance to their second AFC Championship in three years.

Betting: Bills -5.5

Dallas Cowboys @ San Francisco 49ers

Spread: San Francisco -4

Total: 46 points

These two met last postseason in the Wild Card round, a game that saw Dallas lose at home 23-17. The Cowboys may have started putting some of their postseason demons to bed last week with a dominating effort over Tampa Bay, and we do think that Dallas may be the better team here. San Francisco and Brock Purdy have rattled off 11 straight wins, but there's just something about the Cowboys that has us thinking they can take this one. Purdy had his share of bad throws last weekend, and Dallas's defense is a bit more opportunistic when it comes to creating turnovers.

Betting: Cowboys +4

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